Could the reddest district in Colorado go blue next year? If you’d asked me that a year ago I’d have said, “No way”. But that was then and this is now and a lot’s happened. Representative Ken Buck decided to pack it in, saying he would see out the term. Then he quit early, leaving the seat vacant. Lauren Boebert decided to move halfway across the state, dumping her 3rd district constituents so that she could vie for the 4th in November. Then she beat out the local Republican opposition in the primary, so it’s looking like she’ll be the new rep come January.
But here are a couple of things to note. For one, Boebert has done quite a bit to alienate Republican voters. By the way, when I say Republicans in this context I mean Old-School Republicans; I don’t consider MAGA to be real Republicans – more like a parasite that burrowed into the party and hollowed it out from the inside then took on its skin – like the Bug did to Edgar in Men In Black, or perhaps more aptly The Thing in Carpenter’s classic – then called everyone that resisted them a RINO and gave them the boot (ask Liz Cheney). And now they want to roll back some things – like, y’know, The Constitution, and voting rights, and freedom of the press – and turn America into Russia 2.0. But I digress.
To get back to the point about alienating voters: It seems that many 4th-district voters aren’t too happy with Carpetbagger Boebert moving to their district, which she doesn’t know and never lived in until recently; she’s turned off women voters with her support for taking away their healthcare choices, and seniors with her support for damaging Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. She’s turning off young voters when it comes to Student Loan forgiveness and climate policy. And if that isn’t enough, her family issues and then getting caught playing Find The Salami in her date’s pants in a theater during a family show (and lying about it – until the security footage went public) hasn’t helped her, particularly with the more religious voters. Family Values? Yeah, riiight.
In the 2022 midterms Boebert won the 3rd district by a hair – fewer than six hundred votes out of three hundred thousand, and that was after a recount (the first count put Adam Frisch slightly ahead, but Colorado law mandates an automatic recount when the difference is less than half a percent). And the 3rd is an R+9 district, according to Cook. It shouldn’t have even been close, so it would seem that Boebert’s constituents weren’t too happy with her non-performance in Congress (where she seemed to be more concerned with showboating and making a fool of herself over public urination laws in DC than she was with 3rd-district problems). Little wonder that she decided to dump the 3rd for a better shot at winning in the 4th – which is R+13, or at least was at the time.
(Real quick, another little side note: If Boebert wins another term, she automatically qualifies for a Congressional Pension for life, which cuts in when you’ve been in Congress for five years. So if you’re wondering why she’s so intent on keeping a seat, wonder no more. If she wins, don’t be too surprised if she decides not to stand for re-election in ’26.)
Trisha Calvarese won the Democratic Party primary in June, and her campaign saw more than $750,000 in donations within a few days. Meanwhile, Boebert’s campaign seems to be financially anaemic. (A personal observation: Right after the primaries a Boebert billboard appeared on a roadside near my home. I noticed the other day that sometime since, it’s been removed. Couldn’t afford the rent?)
And so, bottom line: Boebert almost lost in the 3rd district a couple of years ago, when that shouldn’t have been possible. Is it possible she could lose in the 4th – even redder than the 3rd – come November? Could her crumbling support from Republican voters crumble enough to make the difference? Might Trisha Calvarese be our next Representative?
I think it could happen. IF we put in the work. I’ll be voting blue all the way down the ticket, and I urge every other 4th-district voter to do the same. Talk to your family. Talk to your friends. If you don’t live in the 4th but have friends or family there, say something. If nothing else, send them a link to this post. Can we flip the 4th? I don’t know, but I do know for sure that it won’t be easy and the chances are slim to none. But if you don’t play, you can’t win – so when the time comes, VOTE.
Tararabit…
Pete Ford 